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Long-run return forecasts (2023-52) based on delayed transition

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S&P 500 annual returns since 1926

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Growth of a dollar in the S&P 500 index since 1947

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Measuring US drawdowns, recessions, and recoveries through the S&P 500 since 1947

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US credit spreads minus government compared to long-term median since 1972

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Historical valuations: US market since 1926

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Years in which US stocks & bonds fell simultaneously since 1928

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US vs. global equities price relative (US dollar-terms) since 1950

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Annual returns of small vs. large hedge funds

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MSCI USA index minus MSCI world ex-US index (3 year rolling returns) since 1973

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