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China-US: Unprecedented Escalation

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Hypothetical growth of $1,000 invested in US stocks in 1970

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Percent of S&P 500 Index Drops from Top to Bottom at Beginning of Downturn

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S&P 500 Index Returns Immediately Preceding Bottoms

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S&P 500 Index Returns Immediately Following Bottoms

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Corporate Credit Since 1997

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Nominal Wages Are Showing Signs of Life Since 2010

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Recession Models Are Flashing Orange, But Few Traditional Signs of Overheating Since 2001

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Subsequent Lynch High Yield Spreads Model Since 1980

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Merrill Lynch High Yield Spreads Model Since 1998

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